But experts and key stakeholders have highlighted other data that show how much work is still to be done.
Australia is on track to meet key international HIV testing and treatment targets, but not all sub-populations are seeing the benefits.
That’s according to new data from the Kirby Institute at the University of New South Wales Sydney.
The nation saw a 25% decrease in the number of HIV notifications between 2016 and 2025, with total case numbers falling from 1006 in 2016 to 753 in 2025, which was largely driven by men. There were 655 HIV notifications in men in 2025 (down from 913 in 2016) and 88 notifications in women (no change from 2016 data).
HIV notification rates (per 100,000 population) displayed similar changes. The overall rate of notifications fell by 33% over the ten-year period (from 4.2 per 100,000 to 2.8 per 100,000), driven by a decline in HIV notifications among men (7.7 per 100,000 to 4.9 per 100,000). There was no change in the HIV notification rate among females (0.7 per 100,000).
“The decline we’ve seen in HIV diagnoses over the last decade shows Australia’s world-leading response is working. While HIV diagnoses increased modestly following a covid-19-related decline associated with public health control measures, the longer-term trend remains downward,” said Dr Skye McGregor, an epidemiologist at the Kirby Institute and the report’s lead.
“However, accelerating this decline will require sustained and enhanced efforts. It is important we focus our efforts and address the inequities revealed by the data, ensuring testing, treatment and prevention options are accessible and available to everyone who needs them.”
Slightly more than half of all HIV notifications in 2025 (55%) were attributed to male-to-male sexual contact, down from the 71% of notifications from the same transmission pathway in 2016. There was an increase in the proportion of notifications attributed to heterosexual contact (20% to 26%) and a smaller increase in the proportion of notifications attributable to injection drug use (1% to 3%).
Despite this decline, gay and bisexual men remain the group most impacted by HIV in Australia. The number of diagnoses in this population have plateaued in recent years, with different sub-populations of gay and bisexual men affected to different extents. Australian-born men have seen a near 50% reduction in diagnoses over the last decade (422 to 229), while overseas-born men have only seen a 19% reduction (316 to 255).
“The long-term downward trends in HIV diagnoses in Australia reflect decades of community-led initiatives and partnerships with health services and researchers aimed at driving down HIV transmission,” said Professor Andrew Grulich, head of the HIV epidemiology and prevention program at the Kirby Institute.
“But when we look closely at the data, it’s clear that Australia’s prevention efforts are reaching some groups and missing others, making progress uneven across the board.
“We have the tools to drive down HIV transmission in Australia, and we know that when we put these tools in the hands of the community, transmission rates fall. However, we need to do better to understand and respond to the needs of diverse communities and ensure equitable access to prevention tools.”
Scott Harlum, president of the National Association of People with HIV Australia (the peak non-government organisation representing community-based groups of people living with HIV), identified a critical window of opportunity to drive prevention efforts in overseas-born men who have sex with men.
“We must eliminate the key risk period for overseas-born men who have sex with men who are new to Australia, which is that between the time they arrive in the country and when they become connected to care,” he said. “We cannot leave them to navigate HIV, distress and risk alone and without the support they need during that key period for them.”
The report also highlighted that HIV-related inequity was still a challenge for First Nations Australians, who face barriers accessing culturally safe healthcare for a variety of reasons.
There were 37 notifications of HIV in First Nations Australians in 2025, up from 23 cases in 2024. Only one year in the past decade has seen a higher notification count – the 47 recorded in 2016. The report noted that the rate of HIV notifications among First Nations Australians in 2025 was 1.9 times higher than that of Australian-born non-Indigenous people, up from 1.6 times higher in 2016.
The distribution of transmission pathways differed between First Nations peoples and non-Indigenous Australians. Over the last three years, 36% of notifications among First Nations people were attributed to sex between gay and bisexual men, 33% to heterosexual sex, 17% to sex between gay and bisexual men and injecting drug use, and 7% to injecting drug use alone.
“While HIV diagnoses among First Nations peoples have overall declined over the past decade, the reduction has not kept pace with the decline seen among non-Indigenous Australians. The increase in diagnoses over the past year is particularly concerning and should be a reminder that we need to closely monitor and rapidly respond where we see cases emerge,” Robert Monaghan, manager of the Yandamanjang First Nations health research program at the Kirby Institute, told media.
“First Nations peoples remain almost twice as likely to be diagnosed with HIV than non-Indigenous Australians. This inequity is unacceptable. We know that HIV is preventable and treatable, so we need to ask why these disparities persist and, more importantly, what we can do differently.
“Eliminating HIV transmission among Australia’s First Nations peoples must remain a critical national priority. The response needs to be driven by communities, not only delivered to them. We need culturally safe, locally relevant campaigns co-designed with First Nations communities and organisations, with a strong focus on testing, prevention, early diagnosis and access to treatment.”
Dash Heath-Paynter, CEO of Health Equity Matters (the national federation for Australia’s leading HIV organisations) also spoke about the need to bolster prevention and treatment efforts among First Nations people.
“Closing these gaps means expanding PrEP access and culturally safe testing so every community can reach it, not just the ones already best served. It also means continuing to resource Australia’s neighbours, Fiji and Papua New Guinea to address the serious outbreak of HIV occurring in these settings,” he said.
Related
The number of late HIV diagnoses – where a person may have been living with HIV for at least four years without knowing their HIV status and potentially experiencing HIV-related illnesses – were also of concern.
One in three HIV notifications in 2025 were considered late. Men reporting heterosexual contact had the highest proportion of late notifications in 2025 (58%). The proportion of late notifications varied by population group:
- Southeast Asian-born gay and bisexual men: 49%
- Heterosexual women: 46%
- Gay and bisexual men: 33%
- Australian-born gay and bisexual men: 23%
- Australian-born heterosexual women: 22%
Dr McGregor said late HIV diagnoses were a major health concern that increased the risk to the health of individuals as well as community transmission rates.
“The proportion of late diagnoses among heterosexual people and gay and bisexual men born in Southeast Asia shows there are clear gaps in access to timely testing. We need sustained investment in a range of culturally appropriate and accessible testing options, ensuring programs meet the needs of communities,” she said.
The data included in this story were presented at the 2026 Australasian HIV&AIDS and Sexual and Reproductive Health Conference, held in Melbourne from 14-17 of September. The complete report, containing more detailed data on this topic, will be released in November 2026.
