National childhood vaccination rates drop to the lowest in nearly a decade as Canada loses its WHO status and US case numbers continue to rise.
The latest National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS) report shows full vaccination coverage at 24 months of age dropped below 90% last year for the first time since 2016.
The trend persists in 2025, with data up to the end of June showing some states’ vaccination coverage at this milestone is as low as 87%.
Professor Gary Grohmann, virologist, board member of the Immunisation Coalition and former Director of Immunobiology and WHO ERL at the TGA, said he considered this to be an orange flag.
“If it goes any lower, like if it hits 85, that’s definitely a red flag that’s going to lead to outbreaks in the vulnerable,” he told The Medical Republic.
“That’s exactly what’s happened in Canada and in the US, and that’s really sad, particularly for a highly developed Western country, which you might have thought had a lot of decent education.”
However, he said he wasn’t too worried about Australia just yet.
Full vaccination coverage at 12 months and 60 months of age remained above 90%, having dropped from nearly 95% in 2020.
“If in six months’ time, or a year’s time, these numbers go down to the high 80s, then I really do think the government needs a massive campaign,” he said.
“But in the meanwhile, people on the frontline – nurses, doctors [and] pharmacists – need to be positive about vaccines and recommend them.”
He also highlighted automated message systems and apps to help people stay on top of their children’s vaccinations.
I don’t know why we’re not them for this when we use them every day to remind us of our dental appointments and restaurant bookings, he lamented.
“I think it’s useful to use the technology we have to say check your vaccination status with your GP for child X, child Y or for yourself.”
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“We’re not using those instant communications enough.”
He said some GPs use these systems, but they need to go further, such as sending alerts when a second MMR dose is due, prompting people to check their vaccination status before travel, and reminding grandparents to get vaccinated against pertussis to protect newborns.
“We need that communication out there through the whole GP network, because they have patient records and so on.”
“But there can also be an advertising campaign by the Government saying check your vaccination status from time to time, or if you’re traveling, are you putting yourself at risk? Are you putting others at risk?”
What about measles?
Canada recently lost its WHO measles elimination status, and measles cases continue to grow in the US, threatening its status as well.
Despite the likelihood that measles is circulating in Sydney, Professor Grohmann does not believe Australia is close to losing its elimination status.
“At the moment, I think we’re okay. We’re not going to lose our status for some time,” he said.
While the downward trend in vaccinations (including MMR) since covid is concerning, he explained that the rates are not dropping massively.
“We’re now dealing with coverage in the low 90s, whereas we’d like to be at 95. We’re in a good position to springboard from that low 90 mark up to 95.”
He hopes Australia doesn’t end up in a situation like Canada’s, which he described as catastrophic, but admitted that anti-vaccination campaign has been proving more successful than the medical community.
“The problem really is social media and disinformation,” he said.
“The anti-vaxxers have been very strong in Canada, and unfortunately, it’s been politics that’s been very strong in the US, creating doubt with vaccines.”
They erode people’s confidence centimetre by centimetre, he said.
“People that work with vaccines know that there is no link with autism, and it doesn’t need to be proven or disproven. The fact is, there is no link.”
He explained that if epidemiological studies had identified a potentially causal link, then further studies would have been conducted. But in the absence of any indication of a link, further research is not warranted.
“I know [Robert F] Kennedy [Jnr] is saying ‘well, there’s been no study’, but there’s been no links so why would you do a study? It just doesn’t make sense.”
“They’re basing it, as usual, on [Andrew] Wakefield, who was discredited and disbarred, and is not even allowed to practice as a doctor because he basically made up the data,” he said.
Travel recommendations
As Christmas and New Year looms, Professor Grohmann warned that travellers to the US and Canada would be at great risk.
“I think people who travel really need to be made aware of the risk of measles,” he said.
“There have been deaths in the US, and these deaths will simply increase. There’s no question in unvaccinated people.”
As of November 25, the US had recorded 1798 confirmed cases of measles and three deaths. More than 90% of cases are in unvaccinated or status unknown individuals.
He warned it wasn’t just measles; people traveling with their children, visiting grandparents or older people visiting their children and grandchildren are at risk of a variety of preventable diseases over the holiday period.
“If a parent has decided they’re not going to do measles, they’ve probably decided not to do other vaccines that are recommended at the time,” he said.
He advised boosters in the lead up to travel, for example pertussis for older people who haven’t had a shot in the last 10 years.
The full NCIRS report can be found here.
