New estimates suggest almost four million Australians live with migraine, with nearly two-thirds potentially undiagnosed.
The number of Australians estimated to be living with neurological conditions has more than doubled to 4.5 million, driven by a major revision to migraine prevalence figures rather than a deterioration in population health.
The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare has updated its chronic conditions dashboard with new estimates showing that about 3.9 million Australians – or one in seven – are living with migraine, compared with the previous estimate of 1.7 million.
Almost two-thirds of those affected, approximately 2.5 million people, may be undiagnosed and consequently missing out on appropriate treatment and management.
The revised figures, incorporated into the dashboard on 2 October, have also pushed the estimated number of Australians living with neurological conditions from 2.2 million to 4.5 million in 2025.
An AIHW spokesperson told The Medical Republic the substantial increases reflected improvements in how migraine prevalence was measured, not an actual surge in disease.
“The higher estimates introduced into the dashboard for these conditions reflect new and more refined estimates for migraine, based on work conducted by the AIHW, not a worsening of population health,” the spokesperson said.
The previous estimates relied on the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ National Health Survey, which was thought to underestimate the true prevalence of migraine and neurological conditions more broadly.
The revised figures draw on the Global Burden of Disease Study, alongside National Health Survey data, following work undertaken by the AIHW to improve migraine prevalence estimates.
The AIHW’s latest Migraine and headaches in Australia report, released on 21 September, found that women and working-age Australians were disproportionately affected by migraine, including in prevalence, hospital admissions, and burden of disease.
Migraine is Australia’s most common neurological condition, meaning the upward revision to its prevalence has had a substantial impact on the overall neurological disease estimate.
The AIHW spokesperson said the National Health Survey data would remain in the dashboard because it provided valuable information about differences between population groups and changes over time, despite its limitations in estimating overall prevalence.
The October update also incorporated new dementia estimates from the AIHW’s Dementia in Australia report, released in July.
An estimated 439,000 Australians were living with dementia in 2025, including just over 274,000 women and 164,000 men.
For the first time, the dashboard also includes estimates of dementia incidence, drawing on the Global Burden of Disease Study. These measure the number of new cases, rather than the total number of people living with the condition.
The institute’s spokesperson confirmed that neurological conditions had been included in the dashboard since its launch in late 2025, but the October update introduced the newly refined prevalence estimates for migraine and neurological conditions collectively.
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Other neurological condition estimates and existing National Health Survey time series have been retained.
Confidence intervals have been added to various charts throughout the dashboard, providing further information about the statistical uncertainty surrounding estimates.
The spokesperson said all estimates in the updated dashboard were drawn from existing AIHW publications, rather than representing newly released research.
The dashboard brings together prevalence and incidence statistics across a range of chronic conditions, including cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, musculoskeletal disorders, respiratory conditions, dementia, and multimorbidity.
Users can examine trends over time, including crude and age-standardised rates, as well as differences by age, sex, remoteness and socioeconomic status.
The AIHW said the dashboard was intended to make chronic disease surveillance information more accessible and support policy development and strategies for preventing and managing chronic illness.
Future updates would expand the conditions, measures and population groups covered, the spokesperson said.
Australia’s chronic conditions dashboard is available here.
