For the first time since it was legalised, medicinal cannabis sales have fallen significantly.
The volume of medicinal cannabis units sold in Australia decreased by almost 30% after AHPRA and the TGA signalled that they would be taking a firmer stance on any dodgy actors, according to new data released under freedom of information laws.
This data formed the basis of a new report from the Penington Institute, released on Thursday.
According to the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing data, medicinal cannabis sales peaked in the second half of 2024 at 3.72 million units and plateaued at 3.70 million in the first half of 2025 before dropping to 2.65 million units in the second half of 2025.
It makes the first significant decline in sales since medicinal cannabis was legalised in 2016.
Last year was a big one for medicinal cannabis regulation. In July, AHPRA released new guidance for prescribers, followed by new guidance for dispensers in September; meanwhile, the TGA kicked off a consultation on new approval pathways in August and the Department of Veterans’ Affairs announced a crackdown on fly-by-night operators in December.
There were also several high-profile media articles after AHPRA revealed that eight practitioners were responsible for writing 10,000 cannabis scripts each over a six-month time period.
Penington Institute policy officer Rhys Cohen pointed out to The Medical Republic that none of this action actually represented a substantial change in policy.
“[Instead,] the regulators have taken it upon themselves to clarify, really specifically clarify, the existing obligations, rules and regulations that practitioners must adhere to and have probably also stepped up monitoring and enforcement action,” he said.
“And we think that’s likely leading to this current trend.”
Monitoring and enforcement, Mr Cohen said, were core functions of regulatory agencies like AHPRA and the TGA.
“Laws and regulations only work if they’re enforced,” he said.
“To some extent, enforcement of the rules matters just as much, if not more, than whatever the rules happen to be.”
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Later this year the TGA is expected to reveal plans to overhaul the current medicinal cannabis supply pathway, which it has publicly stated is no longer fit for purpose.
The Penington Institute report speculates that the 2025 decline in sales indicates that action directly targeting commercially driven, high-volume prescribing were the most effective means of protecting patients.
Additional reforms targeted toward restricting patient access “should be approached cautiously”, it said.
“A lot of different possible regulatory reforms have been bandied around, and some of them would involve pretty significant transformations of how the whole medicinal cannabis framework operates in Australia, potentially in ways that could really restrict patient access or make it a lot harder for people to access medicinal cannabis,” Mr Cohen said.
“That TGA review was commenced in response to a whole bunch of bad news stories and evidence of some clinicians and some companies operating inappropriately, but it looks like taking steps to enforce existing regulations may be able to address those problems without needing to make sweeping amendments to the whole framework, which could have perverse outcomes.”
